If Jimmy Butler wants to receive his last big contract, he needs to make himself present in the Miami Heat’s offense.
The Heat had one of the lowest offensive ratings for a playoff team (113) and that is partly due to Butler’s passiveness in the regular season. Come playoff time it’s a different story, but the league is blossoming with so much talent that at this point Butler is doing a disservice to the team by taking regular-season nights off. There are no more easy games or scheduled wins.
Butler’s base stats noticeably declined last season. He averaged his lowest points per game (20) and assists per game (5) since joining the Heat in 2019. Additionally, it’s his second-lowest season for field goals attempted since his rookie year (13.2). This decline might be more acceptable if he were getting to the free-throw line more often, but his free-throw attempts also hit a low (7.7).
Regular box score stats don’t tell the full story for Butler though as he usually stands out in the advanced stats. This is why he’s been a consistent All-NBA caliber player. But last season was different.
Butler’s usage rate (24.0) was the lowest it’s ever been since he’s been in a Heat uniform. His assist percentage has dropped significantly to 23.1%, a five percent decrease from his previous low of 28.1% in his first season with the Heat. Additionally, his box plus/minus (4.6) was also the lowest since his first season with the team.
Here are two specific areas where Butler needs to improve next season so that he can return to All-NBA status — and get paid like it.
1. Jimmy Butler needs to get to the rim more
The Heat need Butler to get to the rim more, which would lead to more successful finishes and drive and kicks to teammates for open shots. He had his shot rejected quite a bit this past season, but with a little bit more elevation and dedicated finishing, his shooting percentages around the rim should bounce back.
Miami’s spacing could be better if Butler just puts his head down and dedicates himself to that side of the ball. Good things happen when Butler is activated and we’ve seen that this has been the case since he put that jersey on.
Butler’s strategy of sitting in the corner and taking three-point shots was interesting but in retrospect, it was more of a way for Butler to take a break, and he only got away with it because the shots were falling. It’s important to floor space, but instead of Tyler Herro driving and kicking for a Butler three, it’s fair to say a better outcome would involve the two switching roles.
The Heat don’t need Butler’s usage rate to rival someone like Luka Doncic, but it being at an all-time low when you’re still the big guy who is also looking for a new contract… well… you got to play like a max player to make max money.
2. Defensive playmaking
Defensively is where the concerns aren’t as high despite both the advanced and box score stats not being where they should be. Butler is still a good-to-great athlete who has the defensive mind of a free safety. If he truly is going to lock in, there are some areas where we need to see prime Jimmy Butler dominate again.
His steals are the lowest it’s been since the 2012-13 season. This is the biggest red flag because it raises concerns about whether he’s trying or if he has lost a step. There is an indicator of it being the former as in the play-in game versus the Philadelphia 76ers, he recorded five steals and couldn’t move for a majority of the second half. He was active, both on and off the ball, which we expect to see more of this upcoming season.
Getting back to the statistics, his block percentage was the lowest it’s been at any point in his career (0.8). Referring back to steals, his steal percentage (1.9) was the lowest it’s been since his rookie season and his defensive win share was tied for the lowest (2.7) during his Heat tenure.
It will be a harder season for the Heat defensively after losing Caleb Martin, one of their premier defensive talents. This means Butler will have to pick up some of the work on these bigger wings and guards considering the Heat have done NOTHING to establish defensive help for both Butler and Bam Adebayo. They Heat will need to figure it out, as they usually do.
Butler is an All-Defensive talent and there’s no reason that he can’t hit that level again or at least give production around that level more consistently. If the Heat can play a tighter defense allowing Butler to roam and make plays, that allows the Heat to get into transition and spoon-feed their offense.
It’ll be interesting to see if Butler comes out guns blazing on offense and becomes a pest on defense when the new season starts up in October.
While an engaged Butler would result in more wins, it would also prove that he could have done more these past couple of regular seasons. But the past is the past, and the 2024-25 season is what should matter to the fans, front office, and Jimmy Butler.
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