The next notable date on Major League Baseball’s calendar – circled in arresting, call-to-action red crayon – is the July 30 trade deadline. That, of course, means buyers and sellers and “holders” and, one hopes, blockbuster swaps before the deadline arrives. That likewise means lots of trade-deadline content examining every possible angle as we work our way toward the end of July.
Speaking of which, we’re working our way through close inspections of several teams that figure to be an active participant in this here deadline. We’ll do that by prescribing a handful of specific trade pieces that the team in question should target – or, in the case of a rebuilding team/seller, we’ll declare which players should be on the way out.
Up this time around are the Toronto Blue Jays. Let’s have a look at their deadline situation.
What they need
What do they need? They need to get better. The Blue Jays are in the discussion for most disappointing team of 2024. Coming off four straight winning seasons and consecutive playoff berths, Toronto right now is in last place in the AL East, on target to threaten 90 losses, and 10 games out of playoff position. That’s very much contrary to expectations coming into the 2024 season, and the ongoing flop may cost manager John Schneider his job and lead to changes within the front office. First, though, comes the trade deadline.
The Jays thanks to their non-contending status figure to be deadline sellers, which means they’ll be looking to get back young talent in exchange for the veterans they’ll be dangling. The Toronto farm system right now is a bit light on top-end talent, so they could stand to take some big swings on “lottery ticket”-grade prospects at the deadline. At the same time, what figures to happen is more pivot than deep rebuild, and that means highly ranked prospects may not be in play given what the Jays figure to be offering. More on that right now.
What they can give up
General manager Ross Atkins has strongly suggested that a teardown involving the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette isn’t going to happen. That, in turn, means flipping walk-year guys who may not have had a long-term future with the Jays even if the 2024 season had been going according to plan. The downside of this is that walk-year trade candidates tend not to fetch big returns given that the acquiring team risks having them for just two months of regular season plus, potentially, the playoffs. Deals like that happen every deadline, but there’s a discount involved, especially when the player still has a significant salary obligation.
Given Atkins’ apparent inclinations, players the Jays figure to shop leading up to July 30 include left-handed starter Yusei Kikuchi, DH/1B Justin Turner, outfielder Kevin Kiermaier, catcher Danny Jansen, and righty relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards. Maybe that pool expands a bit to include players under contract or team control for 2025 who aren’t necessarily part of the core, but for now we’ll stick with the pending free agents.
Yusei Kikuchi
Another possibility is that the Jays maneuver at the deadline with one eye on getting under the luxury tax threshold for 2025 and resetting their penalties. That would entail shipping off higher-salary vets like George Springer, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassitt. That, in turn, would probably mean “stapling” prospects of their own to those contracts in order to persuade other teams to take them on. This comes down to the priorities of ownership – will the deadline be used to shave payroll or to restock the farm system? For now, signs point to the latter approach.
Possible trade partners
The Jays should have little trouble moving Kikuchi, who’s put up a 3.60 FIP in 21 starts with 125 strikeouts in 111 innings. He’s owed the balance of a modest $10 million. That’s not much of a financial impediment for a team in need of mid- or back-end rotation help. There’s always an abundance of such teams at the deadline, and this year’s limited supply of obvious sellers should make the market even stronger from the Toronto perspective. Possible fits include those contenders who may not be well positioned to pay the going prospect rates for the more coveted Garrett Crochet. The Guardians, Padres, and Twins seem like strong possibilities. If the Jays are willing to do business within the division, then perhaps the Red Sox merit a conversation.
Then there’s Jansen, the productive veteran backstop. While his offensive numbers in 2024 are down slightly from career norms, he’s still productive by the standards of catchers. As well, he has power upside at the plate, as over his career Jansen has averaged 25 home runs per 162 games played. Yes, teams are generally hesitant to add a regular or even semi-regular catcher at midseason given how important familiarity with the pitching staff is, but maybe there’s a team desperate enough to overlook such concerns?
The Cubs would seem to qualify. This season, their catchers have combined to “hit” just .182/.232/.277, which is a roundly unacceptable level of production. The addition of Jansen would address that weakness very directly. Yes, the Cubs have been a disappointment thus far in 2024, but they remain in the mix for an NL wild-card berth (and the NL Central title shouldn’t be ruled out). If they believe they can find their expected level down the stretch, then the Cubs might be willing to be modest buyers. If that’s the case, then Jansen is an ideal fit.
Elsewhere, Turner isn’t going to get the Jays much as a hitter who, at this stage of his career, is the right-handed half of a DH/1B platoon. Likewise, Kiermaier has little market given his salary and struggles (and the fact that he wasn’t claimed off revocable waivers). However, there’s always a deadline push for bullpen help, and García and Richards should be easily moved. The Royals and Orioles in particular have needs in the pen.
Overall, it doesn’t figure to be an earth-shattering deadline for Toronto given the likelihood that they hang on to their young stars. Even so, Atkins will be quite busy trying to unload all those pending free agents and maybe trying to shed salary at the same time.
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