Should the Sixers offer Joel Embiid a $193 million extension this summer?

On July 18, the Sixers can offer Joel Embiid a three-year, $192.9 million contract extension. He would have to decline his $59.0 million player option for the 2026-27 season and would then earn the following (based on current projections):

2026-27: $59,539,200
2027-28: $64,302,336
2027-29: $69,065,472
Embiid would have to sign the extension prior to the first day of the 2024-25 regular season. Since he still has multiple years left on his contract, he will be ineligible to sign an extension once the regular season begins.

If he declines to sign an extension this summer, the Sixers could offer him a four-year, $266.7 million max extension next offseason. He could instead decide to test unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2026, when he’d be eligible for a five-year, $345.3 million (!) max deal.

So, should the Sixers offer Embiid an extension this offseason? And should the big fella take it? Let’s walk through the reasons both for and against it.

Why both sides should want an extension

Why would Embiid accept a three-year, $192.9 million extension now if he could be eligible for a five-year, $345.3 million contract as a free agent two years from now? Both his age and injury history loom large.

Embiid turned 30 in March and still has yet to make it past the conference semifinals. Although a majority of his injuries tend to be fluky—remember when he broke his face on Markelle Fultz’s shoulder?—the narrative about his postseason underperformance will only get louder until he breaks through and guides the Sixers on a deep run.

Embiid is undeniably one of the NBA’s most dominant players right now. But will he be two years from now? Four years from now? How many teams would want to risk paying him more than $70 million in his age-35 and age-36 seasons?

The Sixers may be the one team that’s willing to incur that risk, particularly after their moves this offseason. They now have Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, Caleb Martin, Ricky Council IV and rookies Jared McCain and Adem Bona under contract for the next three seasons. Kelly Oubre Jr. could very well join them next summer. They made all of those moves with Embiid in mind.

Embiid has been the Sixers’ alpha and omega for years. Take one look at his comically lopsided on/off splits and you’ll see why. He routinely destroys one-on-one coverage, and his growth as a passer in recent years has helped him better pick apart double-teams. He routinely generates open looks for his teammates thanks to the defensive attention he attracts.

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