This season has been both predictable and unexpected. We’ve seen typical MLB powerhouses, such as the New York Yankees, re-emerge from down seasons, but we’ve also seen surprises such as the Cleveland Guardians having the best record in the American League or the Atlanta Braves going 13-14 in May.
Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks seem to have a World Series hangover, with Arizona hovering around .500 and Texas four games under that. Both the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets have come back from slow starts to put themselves squarely in the — very muddled — National League wild-card race. From a player perspective, we’ve seen Kansas City Royals rookie pitching sensation Paul Skenes take the league by storm, Gunnar Henderson keep up with Aaron Judge in the early AL MVP race and young stars Bobby Witt Jr. and Jarren Duran solidify themselves as the future of their franchises. And, of course, we can’t forget about Shohei Ohtani, who continues to put up eye-popping numbers at the plate this season despite undergoing Tommy John surgery last September, which has kept him off the mound in 2024.
How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?
We’ve broken down all 30 squads into five tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield and Jorge Castillo to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.
Record: 62-34 | Projected final record: 101-61
Division title odds: 89.5% | Playoff odds: 100% | Championship odds: 19.4%
How they got to the top: Incredible front-line pitching. The Phillies’ top four starters — Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez — are a combined 38-16 with a 2.96 ERA. Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering give the Phillies three relievers with a sub-2.00 ERA. When Sanchez became a late replacement for the All-Star Game, that meant the Phillies became the first team with five All-Star pitchers in one season — Wheeler, Suarez, Hoffman, Strahm and Sanchez. Oh, and Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Alec Bohm made up three-fourths of the starting infield as the Phillies set a club record with eight All-Stars in Arlington.
What to expect from here:
A big push to end the Braves’ six-year reign atop the NL East and capture the first division title for the Phillies since setting a franchise record with 102 wins in 2011. That number is in reach — especially if president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski improves a weak bench at the trade deadline and perhaps deals for a starting outfielder. They’d prefer not to head into October with Johan Rojas, who struggled last postseason, once again as their regular center fielder. — Schoenfield
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