This season has been both predictable and unexpected. We’ve seen typical MLB powerhouses, such as the New York Yankees, re-emerge from down seasons, but we’ve also seen surprises such as the Cleveland Guardians having the best record in the American League or the Atlanta Braves going 13-14 in May.
Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks seem to have a World Series hangover, with Arizona hovering around .500 and Texas four games under that. Both the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets have come back from slow starts to put themselves squarely in the — very muddled — National League wild-card race.From a player perspective, we’ve seen Kansas City Royals rookie pitching sensation Paul Skenes take the league by storm, Gunnar Henderson keep up with Aaron Judge in the early AL MVP race and young stars Bobby Witt Jr. and Jarren Duran solidify themselves as the future of their franchises. And, of course, we can’t forget about Shohei Ohtani, who continues to put up eye-popping numbers at the plate this season despite undergoing Tommy John surgery last September, which has kept him off the mound in 2024.
How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?
We’ve broken down all 30 squads into five tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield and Jorge Castillo to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.
Record: 44-52 | Projected final record: 76-86
Division title odds: 0% | Playoff odds: 1.1% | Championship odds: 0%
How they got here: The offense just isn’t good. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rebounded from a slow start — he’s slashing .288/.539/.456 with 12 home runs at the break — but he has gotten little help. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who is on the IL, ranks second in the club with a 115 OPS+ among qualified hitters. Ernie Clement (102) and Danny Jansen (100) are the only other players in triple digits. Veterans Justin Turner, George Springer and Kevin Kiermaier have struggled to varying degrees, but Bo Bichette has been the biggest disappointment.
The two-time All-Star shortstop has a .222/.275/.321 slash line with four home runs, his worst season as a major leaguer. His underperformance is a significant reason why Toronto ranks 24th in runs scored per game this season.
What to expect from here: An ugly second half. The Blue Jays are ready to offload veterans at the trade deadline. The question is how far is general manager Ross Atkins willing to go.
Will he only consider trading upcoming free agents Yusei Kikuchi, Jansen and Turner? Or will Atkins trade players under team control beyond this year, too, and attempt to move Guerrero, Bichette and/or Chris Bassitt? That would constitute pulling the plug on a once-promising core that made postseason appearances in three of the past four years and was swept in the wild card each time. — Castillo
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