This season has been both predictable and unexpected. We’ve seen typical MLB powerhouses, such as the New York Yankees, re-emerge from down seasons, but we’ve also seen surprises such as the Cleveland Guardians having the best record in the American League or the Atlanta Braves going 13-14 in May.
Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks seem to have a World Series hangover, with Arizona hovering around .500 and Texas four games under that. Both the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets have come back from slow starts to put themselves squarely in the — very muddled — National League wild-card race. From a player perspective, we’ve seen Kansas City Royals rookie pitching sensation Paul Skenes take the league by storm, Gunnar Henderson keep up with Aaron Judge in the early AL MVP race and young stars Bobby Witt Jr. and Jarren Duran solidify themselves as the future of their franchises. And, of course, we can’t forget about Shohei Ohtani, who continues to put up eye-popping numbers at the plate this season despite undergoing Tommy John surgery last September, which has kept him off the mound in 2024.
How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?
We’ve broken down all 30 squads into five tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield and Jorge Castillo to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.
Record: 54-42 | Projected final record: 90-72
Division title odds: 36.8% | Playoff odds: 83.3% | Championship odds: 5.8%
What makes them a contender: The lineup, when healthy, can hang with the best of them. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are enjoying resurgent seasons. Correa, an All-Star, is slashing .308/.377/.522 with 13 home runs, while Buxton is batting .285 with an .829 OPS in 72 games after hitting .207 with a .731 OPS in 85 games last season. Jose Miranda recently tied a major league record with hits in 12 consecutive plate appearances, an unprecedented stretch that boosted his production to an All-Star level. Royce Lewis has a 185 OPS+. The problem is Lewis has played in just 24 games and is on the IL for the second time this season.Miranda is on there, too, and Correa and Buxton, two injury-prone veterans, had IL stints early in the season. But when healthy, watch out.
What to expect from here: See above. Injuries are an issue for the Twins and will be too much to overcome to chase down the Guardians for first place, leaving them to battle for a wild-card spot. The competition will be stiff. Two of the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox, plus one of the Astros and Mariners figure to compete with Minnesota for a berth. Too many injuries and the Twins will find themselves home for October. — Castillo
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