As the Toronto Maple Leafs gear up for the upcoming season, one of the primary questions facing fans and team leadership is where to best place Max Domi, Matthew Knies, and Bobby McMann in the lineup. Leveraging advanced analytics from the fantasy site Left-Wing Lock, we can gain valuable insights into the most effective line combinations for these players.
In this analysis, I aim to identify where each player can maximize contributions and align with the team’s strategic goals.
Matthew Knies’ Best Fit? With Matthews & Marner
Knies’ performance varies significantly with different linemates, and advanced statistics shed light on his ideal partners. When paired with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, Knies has shown exceptional results. This line has achieved a powerful 65.7% goals-for percentage (GF%), with 23 goals scored and only 12 goals against. Additionally, the line boasts impressive possession metrics, including a Corsi For percentage [Shot Attempts Percentage or SAT%) of 55.7% and an unblocked shot attempts percentage (USAT%) of 58.5%. These stats indicate that Knies thrives alongside Matthews and Marner, benefiting from their elite playmaking and finishing abilities.
When Knies skated with Matthews and William Nylander, the line’s effectiveness was still strong, though slightly less dominant. This trio recorded a 54.5% GF% and maintained solid possession metrics with a 52.7% SAT% and a 55.0% USAT%. While effective, this combination was less impactful than the one with Marner, suggesting that Knies performs best when paired with top-tier talent like Marner.
In contrast, Knies’ performance with John Tavares and Nylander was notably less effective, with a GF% of 44.4% and negative possession metrics (SAT% of 43.3% and USAT% of 42.9%). This drop in effectiveness could be due to less synergy or a mismatch in play styles, indicating Knies may struggle more with this pairing.
Overall, the data suggests that Knies is best utilized in a top-line role with Matthews and Marner, where his skills are maximized, leading to a more dominant and effective performance on the ice.
Max Domi’s Best Fit? With Matthews
Max Domi’s effectiveness was notably high when paired with Tyler Bertuzzi (who has signed with the Chicago Blackhawks) and Auston Matthews. This line boasted the highest GF% at 59.4% and excellent possession metrics, with a SAT% of 61.5% and a USAT% of 60.8%. These numbers indicate that the line controlled play and generated significant offensive opportunities. The high zone start percentage (ZS%) of 75.4% shows this line is was deployed in offensive situations, aligning well with Domi’s strengths as a playmaker.
In contrast, when Domi was paired with Bertuzzi and William Nylander, the GF% remained strong at 57.1%, but possession metrics dropped significantly (SAT% at 43.9% and USAT% at 43.0%). This indicates that, while this line could score, it struggled to control play as effectively.
Domi also performs well with Nick Robertson and Calle Jarnkrok, achieving a GF% of 57.9% and solid possession metrics (SAT% at 55.7% and USAT% at 57.8%). This balanced combination generates offense while maintaining decent control of the play.
What’s interesting about analyzing Domi’s best fit is his versatility. He effectively plays center and wing, which offers an intriguing strategic advantage. Pairing him with Matthews allows for dynamic positional flexibility, with Domi sometimes assuming the center’s role and Matthews moving to the wing. This adaptability can create a fluid and unpredictable offensive setup, potentially giving the Maple Leafs an edge in various in-game situations. Also interesting is that Domi’s best-fit bumps into Knies best fit (as pointed out above). It might be that head coach Craig Berube will have ample opportunity to do some line shifting during games to utilize both combinations.
Bobby McMann’s Best Fit? With Nylander and Tavares
Analytic data show that Bobby McMann’s effectiveness on the ice varies depending on his linemates. When paired with Noah Gregor and David Kämpf, McMann played five games, achieving a success rate of 55.6%. This line had a nearly even shot attempt distribution, with 147 shots for and 150 against. However, their expected goals percentage (xG%) was around 49.5%, and their GF% was just 7.1%. This indicates they had difficulties converting chances into goals and slightly below-average defensive play.
In contrast, McMann performed better alongside Nylander and Tavares, playing six games together with a success rate of 75.0%. This combination had a positive shot attempt differential, with 82 shots for and 75 against, and their xG% stood at 52.2%, while their GF% was 13.6%. These numbers highlight strong offensive production and efficient goal conversion. Additionally, when McMann was paired with Robertson and Tavares for four games, they achieved an even higher success rate of 80.0%. Although their shot attempt ratio was close, with 61 shots for and 63 against, they had an xG% of 49.2% and a GF% of 11.4%, demonstrating better goal conversion than the line with Gregor and Kämpf, though slightly less effective than with Nylander and Tavares.
McMann appears most effective when paired with high-end offensive players like Nylander and Tavares, who can create and finish scoring chances. For optimal performance, McMann should be aligned with linemates who enhance his offensive production, contributing to a more dynamic and effective team strategy. If the Maple Leafs trust the advanced statistics, they would likely place McMann in the top six, likely on the second line.
The Bottom Line for the Maple Leafs
In conclusion, understanding the best line combinations for Knies, Domi, and McMann can significantly impact the Maple Leafs’ success this season. By optimizing their placement on the ice, the team can maximize their contributions and achieve a more balanced and potent offensive attack.
How Berube engages his lineup depends in part on who’s there. Bertuzzi must be replaced as a fixture on the top lines. Better fits might exist than those engaged here, but they haven’t yet been tried. Expect the regular season to be a testing ground for further possibilities.
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