Through five games, this Browns offense has been a popular storyline in the NFL for all the wrong reasons.
It’s far from what was advertised during the offseason, to the point where the overall performance has implied questions of the unit’s identity, or if there ever was one to start with.
Film shows an uncomfortable Deshaun Watson making head-scratching plays, a decimated offensive line, a non-productive run game, and a frustrated receiving corps that aren’t getting usual touches.
However, that is only the film. If we went to the data at hand, just how bad has this offense been from a numbers-based perspective?
Points per game: 15.8 (ranked 30th)
Obviously, this is a starting point when peeling back the layers of the state of this offense.
In terms of points per game, the lowest a Kevin Stefanski-ran offense has ranked at the end of the regular season was 20th during the 2021 season (20.5). Even dating back to the 2023 season, the Browns found a way to tie for 10th in the regular season (23.3).
Yet, through Week 5 of the 2024 season, the Browns have accounted for a little over two touchdown scores per game. Furthermore, the offense has scored seven touchdowns this season.
It looks worse when compared to kicker Dustin Hopkins, who’s accounted for 27 points through Week 5, through seven field goals and six extra points.
The offense has the same amount of touchdowns that the kicker has field goals.
Rushing yards per game: 96.6 (27th)
The run game has been non-existent this season. It’s understandable to point out the obvious in Nick Chubb still being sidelined from his injury that ended his 2023 season in Week 2.
But what made the overall offense impressive, let alone the run game, in 2023 was even without an engine in Chubb, the run game still finished 13th in rushing yards per game (115.2).
This can have a direct link to the lackluster offensive line this season, but also shows none of the backs have displayed an ability to make something out of nothing.
Red zone scoring attempts per game: 1.6 (32nd)
The Browns have trouble even traveling downfield to get to that part of the field. This is an offense that has possession of the ball for around 30 minutes per game, but are unable to average two or more trips to the red zone.
Their 1.6 red zone scoring attempts per game ranks last, and makes them the only team in the league averaging under two-attempts in the red zone.
However, what’s interesting is the Browns are tied with the Ravens for the second highest red zone scoring percentage (touchdown only) with a 75% rate. This means when approaching the red zone, they usually take advantage and put points on the board.
The only touchdown scored outside of the red zone was Deshaun Watson’s 24-yard pass to Amari Cooper in the Week 3 loss to the Giants.
Expected points added: -0.36
This statistic relates to quarterback Deshaun Watson’s EPA, or expected points added. It’s become a popular analytical statistic within recent years, and measures how valuable each play is by how much it affects the offense’s chances of scoring.
Since the 2000 season, there have been two quarterbacks with at least 150 drop-backs and a -0.35 EPA per play or worse through five weeks, per the33rdteam:
2023 Mac Jones: -0.39 (183 drop-backs)
2024 Deshaun Watson: -0.36 (221 drop-backs)
Watson’s offensive impact hasn’t led to much good.
Run-blocking grade: 52.9 (31st) / Pass-blocking grade: 49.3 (29th)
Paired together above are the overall run-blocking and pass-blocking grades through Week 5 from the Browns offensive line, per Pro Football Focus.
Among qualifying blockers for the Browns, Wyatt Teller has played three games and ranks first in run-blocking (65.5), while Jedrick Wills Jr. has only played two games and ranks first in pass-blocking (65.7).
It’s quite an interesting sight to look at, especially when considering the Browns were first in both run-blocking (81.4) and pass-blocking (86.5) during the 2020 season, per PFF.
This unit was known to be among the most consistent in the league. The grades slightly decreased year by year up to 2023, but 2024 has set itself apart within the grades literally downgrading.
Third-down conversion rate: 18.18% (32nd)
Keeping a series alive has been a struggle for this team this season.
In past seasons, the offense has stayed above 30% in this statistic; even during the 2023 season when ranking 29th in third-down conversion percentage (32.46%).
This season they’ve been unable to do so.
However, this also prompts a question to what is happening on first and second down. Currently, Cleveland has a cumulative “average yards to go” of 8.95 on third downs this season.
It’s already enough with them averaging the fewest yards per play (3.8), but this further means the Browns are unable to gain enough yards on the first couple plays of a series to keep from a third-and-long situation.
QB sacks allowed: 26 (1st)
Watson leads all quarterbacks in sacks (26), and he’s also the only quarterback through Week 5 who has been sacked 20 or more times. On average, he’s spending about 2.6 seconds in the pocket.
Yes, the offensive line is the most plagued position group injury-wise, but it’s hard to excuse the unit, whose job is to literally prevent this. As mentioned above, PFF gives the unit a 49.3 overall grade in pass-blocking.
Ethan Pocic currently leads the team in quarterback hurries allowed (11), James Hudson III leads in quarterback hits allowed (seven), and Dawand Jones leads in sacks allowed (three), per PFF.
As for Watson, he’s been credited with being responsible for five of the 26 sacks.
Dropped passes: 17 (1st)
The lack of cohesion between Watson and the receiving corps in Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy, is head-scratching. The timing is off, the communication isn’t there, and you’re just hoping a dot from Watson meshes with a sharp route once in a while.
Though Jeudy is the only newcomer among the three, and they all were working together during the offseason, each game makes it look as though Watson hasn’t played with these guys before.
This has also resulted in the number of dropped passes by the receivers so far, ranking first with 17 on the season.
Cooper has been credited with five drops, while Moore has three and Jeudy is credited with one, per PFF.
What’s also troubling is the Browns ranked second in 2023 in dropped passes (42), per NFLStats. Not a good trend to have.
Watson’s production score: 3.97 (32nd)
Going back to the33rdteam, they ranked all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks based on a spectrum of metrics, ranging from accuracy to decision-making, and production score. The scores from each category leads to an overall production score.
Watson is ranked dead last with a production score of 3.97, but how so?
Well, Watson ranked toward the bottom in multiple categories, including 30th in accuracy (8.4), 31st in decision-making (8.3) and 32nd in pocket management. His play not only has led to poor on-field statistics regarding total yards and touchdowns, but it also translates poorly on the analytics spectrum too.
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