Aaron Judge is the dark cloud that looms over the Blue Jays’ American League Division Series, the constant threat they’ll need to wrestle and weather.
To beat the Yankees, you must first tame Judge, the AL MVP candidate who can wreck a game, a series and a season with one swing. The Blue Jays know Judge as well as anyone, playing in the AL East against him 13 times each season, but the stakes of an ALDS makes the threat feel somehow bigger and closer.
So much of the Blue Jays’ strategy will be shaped around Judge, beginning with Game 1 on Saturday. He has his own gravitational pull, forcing opposing managers to bend their bullpen plans around each looming at-bat.
“You’re definitely aware of where he is at all times and respect the hell out of the season that he had,” manager John Schneider said Friday.
Judge’s numbers speak for themselves, year after year. In 2025, he led MLB in batting average (.331), on-base percentage (.457) and slugging percentage (.688) to go along with 53 home runs. When you look at his numbers against the Blue Jays, including Game 1 starter Kevin Gausman, it doesn’t get any less scary.
Judge vs. Blue Jays in 2025: .325 average with three home runs and a 1.118 OPS over 13 games, including 15 walks.
Judge vs. Gausman career: .354 average with six home runs and a 1.283 OPS over 61 plate appearances
Gausman is aware of this. He’s been on the wrong end of too many of those at-bats, and while he’s also struck out Judge 19 times in those 61 plate appearances, he understands this threat as well as anyone.
“He’s a lot bigger than most guys, first off,” Gausman said with a smile. “He can hit pitches that most guys can’t hit. He can mis-hit a ball and still hit a home run. He’s just that strong. With that, you’ve just got to know that you’ve got to be a little bit more fine when he comes up. When guys are on base, you really have to be fine, because he’s the guy that with one swing of that bat, he can blow a game wide open.”
The solution? Four fingers.
Of the 15 times the Blue Jays have walked Judge this season, seven have been intentional.
“I know I’ve gotten plenty of boos in New York and even some boos here if you walk him,” Schneider said. “I get it, as a fan of the game.”
It’s a matter of survival, though. The Blue Jays aren’t trying to hand Judge an 0-for-20 in the series. That’s just unrealistic, but by keeping Judge back down here on planet Earth with the rest of us, they can level the playing field and beat the Yankees in other ways. The threat of Judge is that he can blow up even the best-laid plans with one swing, so there are days where even a single or the odd double are welcomed with a sigh of relief.
Gausman will talk this over with Schneider, pitching coach Pete Walker and catcher Alejandro Kirk leading up to his Game 1 start.
“There’s times, if there’s an open base and it’s late in the game, we’re probably going to do that,” Gausman said. “That’s the nature of the beast. He’s a guy that, like I said, can beat you with one swing. He’s one of the best players in the game. At the same time, you always want to go after guys, so it’s kind of that double-edged sword.”
Dangers exist beyond Judge, of course. The Yankees’ lineup led baseball in runs (849) and homers (274), and it wasn’t all Judge. He represents a threat the Blue Jays can’t match, though, unless Vladimir Guerrero Jr. recaptures some of that magic he tends to find against the rival Yankees.
Guerrero was careful not to feed the fire Friday, dodging questions about whether he’s more motivated against the Yankees. Besides, this is the guy who said he’d never play for the Yanks, “not even dead.” There’s something to it, though. Guerrero is a career .302 hitter against New York with 22 home runs in 102 games. At Yankee Stadium, he’s looked even better (1.002 OPS in 48 games).
It’s such a high bar, holding Guerrero to Judge, but there’s incredible pressure on each. Judge is missing the ring while Guerrero still hasn’t won a postseason game. Someone needs to break through.
This might be the biggest test Toronto will face in the postseason, regardless of how much longer this dream season rolls on. Judge is here, and if the Blue Jays want to go anywhere, they need to survive him.
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