Offering credit where due, the Boston Bruins are saying all of the right things after playing poorly enough to help cost their head coach his job. Not to absolve the 2023 Jack Adams winner of all responsibility, but if the B’s were playing to their collective capability, Jim Montgomery wouldn’t be fine-tuning his resume right now. That the club’s 8-9-3 record isn’t poorer with its blazingly bad -21 goal differential even feels fortunate.
But again, full credit to several key individuals — including David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, and Charlie McAvoy — for absorbing responsibility and fully admitting they’re letting everyone down. Big thumbs up for taking proper accountability. But now what? And what fantasy fallout can we expect from this big change in Beantown?
At first glance post-Montgomery firing, the Bruins’ top nine appears unchanged, while the No. 1 power play also remains intact. No surprise there, as interim head coach Joe Sacco will likely take a minute before making any significant changes. My greater concern anyway is the failure of the team’s more prominent performers to live up to individual expectations.
When was the last time Pastrnak averaged fewer than a point/game? (Answer: 2017-18, and only by a hair.) Marchand is underwhelming Bruins fans and fantasy managers alike, while Pavel Zacha has seven points. Elias Lindholm? Two goals. Two. Unacceptable numbers for Boston’s two top centers, particularly when skating alongside Pastrnak and Marchand respectively, and competing on the No. 1 power play. After averaging 0.64 points/game just last year, Charlie McAvoy is currently stumbling about at 0.35/contest. More often than not, No. 1 Jeremy Swayman has been mediocre to lousy.
The upside in Boston is that’s the only direction matters can take. Up. For those who don’t want to place too much weight on the benefits of the ‘New Coach Bump’ – a phenomenon backed by real figures – take comfort in knowing that many individuals should already be posting better numbers, including those aforementioned top centers.
According to Evolving Hockey, Zacha owns a 7.5% shooting percentage (career average: 11.8%) and 6.08 individual expected goals metric. Lindholm’s current 6.9% shooting percentage falls well below his NHL average of 12.1% and his 5.52 ixG is definitely more than two. The former Flame/Hurricane also needs to shoot more. Statistically, Marchand and Pastrnak should also be experiencing better scoring fortune. While not likely available in your fantasy league, more goals from the team’s top wingers will benefit Zacha and/or Lindholm in the assists department.
If still holding onto either center as a performer, there’s scant point in tossing in that fantasy towel now. I might even give Zacha — rostered in 11% of ESPN Fantasy leagues — a look as an easy add in deeper leagues. Same goes for Lindholm, although he remains largely spoken for in most competition. At least until if/when that new coach bump levels off once more. As for Swayman, if/when the Bruins right their ship, the club’s No. 1 will most predictably improve well. As for by how great a degree, along with everyone else mentioned, we’ll get our first hint when the Bruins host Utah Thursday.
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