In the last nine seasons, only three players have more goals than Boston Bruins winger David Pastrnak.
Yet bettors throwing cash at FanDuel odds aren’t exactly buzzing about his chances for the 2026 Rocket Richard Trophy. Facing heavyweights like Leon Draisaitl and Auston Matthews, the Bruins’ star winger is a +1500 long shot to lead the NHL in goals.
Last season, Matthews was the FanDuel favorite before Draisaitl had a monster 52-goal season that almost earned him a Hart Trophy, too.
Over those last nine seasons, only Alex Ovechkin (372), Draisaitl (378), and Matthews (401) have more goals than Pastrnak (366) in the last nine seasons. However, the Bruins’ offense sputtered last season, and the oddsmakers seem to think Pastrnak’s got a steep hill to climb.
Since the Czech right-winger landed on the North American scene in 2014-15, he’s been a goal machine. Over 11 seasons, Pastrnak’s racked up 391 goals, a tally that already puts him in Hall of Fame company.
Excluding the injury and COVID-shortened 2020-21 season, he’s marked at least 34 goals every year since 2016-17. His 2019-20 campaign, where he snagged the Rocket Richard with 48 goals alongside Ovechkin, proved he can hang with the league’s elite snipers.
Pastrnak’s peak was unreal—61 goals in 2022-23, though he fell just short of Connor McDavid’s 64. Last season, he notched 43 goals and 106 points, his third straight 100-point year, joining Bruins legends Bobby Orr and Phil Esposito in that exclusive club. But with the Bruins’ offense struggling, FanDuel’s odds reflect the skepticism: Pastrnak’s a long shot against Draisaitl (+300) and Matthews (+400), who’ve dominated the goal-scoring race in recent years.
Analysts obviously tied Pastrnak’s chances to the Bruins’ roster, badly in need of retooling or a full rebuild. This season, the Bruins are rolling without a captain and leaning on Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy as alternates, but they need more punch from their secondary scorers.
New head coach Marco Sturm will take over a squad that limped offensively last season, especially when key defensemen were injured. Pastrnak’s chemistry with linemate Matthew Geekie could ignite a rebound, but opponents can suppress the Bruins’ attack by blanketing him with their best defenders.
The odds board is stacked against him. Draisaitl, fresh off a 52-goal season that clinched the trophy in 2024-25, is the favorite, while Matthews, a three-time winner, looms large. Kirill Kaprizov (+600) is in a walk year, while McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon (+1600 each) add to the crowded field. Pastrnak’s +1500 odds put him just behind Mikko Rantanen (+1400), implying a roughly 6% shot at the crown.
Health could be the X-factor. Pastrnak played all 82 games last season. At 29, he’s in his prime, boasting a career 0.56 goals-per-game clip. Boston’s power play, where he feasts, remains a top unit, and roster tweaks could open even more ice for him. Still, the Bruins’ aging core and lack of a 30-goal supporting scorer raise red flags. If Sturm’s system unleashes a more aggressive attack, Pastrnak should crack 50 goals for the third time.
Pastrnak’s talent is undeniable, but the Rocket Richard race is brutal. As the puck drops on Oct. 8, he’ll need health, linemate support, and a touch of luck to outgun the NHL’s elite and silence the doubters.
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