The troubling thing about Leeds United’s defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion was that there was nothing to point to as the reason for the woeful performance.
Players were back from injury, aside from Wilfried Gnonto but he has now had a full week of training. Brighton had won just one of their past four games. The line up is what everyone would have selected, barring maybe Brenden Aaronson on the right.
Yet there was no shot on target until the 86th minute, the midfield operated as though they hadn’t played together before and United’s most consistent players – Jayden Bogle and Gabriel Gudmundsson – were undone.
There are defeats, and then there are defeats. There is a proverb that says setbacks are only setbacks if you don’t learn from them and Daniel Farke must have taken a few new thoughts home with him.
Although, he indicated that it didn’t have much to do with his tactics away from home. “In several away games – for example, Fulham and Wolves – we create an unbelievable amount of expected goals,” he said.
“If you ever look at our expected goals statistics, the predictions [say] we would be in the top six. Not today. It’s a fair assessment that we were not good.”
Farke went on to insist that “there’s not too much to over-analyse” from the game. The reality is that Leeds have only scored away from home in one of their five attempts, which was that 3-1 win at bottom club Wolves.
Of course, Arsenal was the first road-trip but few expected Leeds to get anything at the Gunners. Ironically, that 5-0 defeat is less damaging than the 2-0 defeat to Burnley and the 3-0 outage at Brighton.
The Seagulls are a good side, make no mistake. Players like Danny Welbeck, Yankuba Minteh and former Whites man Georginio Rutter spell out the quality they have in comparison.
Yet they were level on points with Leeds heading into the game and there is a feeling from supporters about not being totally convinced by Fabian Hurzeler. But ultimately, the hosts barely had to get out of first gear.
It looked as though they were merely waiting to find the breakthrough – a ‘when’ rather than an ‘if’. The ‘when’ came on 11 minutes. Leeds’ best spell came in the final third of the half when they held onto possession and drew a few corners.
The best move came when Dominic Calvert-Lewin flicked Noah Okafor through the defence, with hthe winger’s ball finding Brenden Aaronson in the box. He laid it off for Sean Longstaff but his effort was deflected over.
The closest Leeds came was when the game was gone, substitute Lukas Nmecha taking a touch too wide allowing Bart Verbruggen to save the one-on-one at his near post in the final few minutes. Moments later, Anton Stach flashed a shot that the goalkeeper had to parry. But the xG score of 0.36 says it all.
Across the first 10 games, United have an xG rating of 12.96 – essentially 13 goals. They have in actuality scored nine and five of those came against a struggling West Ham United and Wolves, who have just sacked their manager. Another came from the penalty spot against Everton.
The goals against high-flying Bournemouth and Champions League outfit Tottenham Hotspur should not be sniffed at but those both came on home soil. Next up is Nottingham Forest away.
Whoever loses that match will find its fanbase in the doldrums over the international break. There will be more emphasis on Forest given they are at home but Leeds will still be under pressure.
A defeat would still mean they are on par with their point-per-game target but with Aston Villa, Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool to come in consecutive games, worry would deepen.
Farke may stick to type tactically. If so, the trip to the City Ground will reveal whether whether last Saturday was just an off day or whether the problem is indeed tactical.
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