The Blue Jays haven’t broken in all of the ways we expected them to.
This rotation has spent the past few seasons dancing through minefields, each foot falling in exactly the right spot. The Blue Jays’ starting depth wasn’t strong enough in 2022 or ‘23, but it never seemed to matter. They were always one savior away.
In 2022, that was Ross Stripling, who stepped in for Hyun Jin Ryu and saved the Blue Jays. The next year, Ryu himself returned from Tommy John surgery just in time to take Alek Manoah’s spot. It felt like the Blue Jays’ luck was due to run out, but they haven’t needed much more than six starters again in ‘24, with Bowden Francis playing the role of the rubber arm.
The quality hasn’t been the same, evidenced by Kevin Gausman’s 4.24 ERA after Monday’s 6-3 loss to the Reds at Rogers Centre, and Chris Bassitt’s 4.34 ERA, but they, along with José Berríos, are still eating through innings at an incredible rate. This comes just one year after those three, along with Yusei Kikuchi, combined to throw 742 1/3 innings, by far the most of any quartet in baseball.
Gausman, Bassitt and Berríos are all headed towards similar workloads again this season, each of them one year older, one year further into this life as a workhorse starter. If the Blue Jays could borrow some innings from this season and drop them directly into 2025, they’d leap to do so, but it’s not that simple. The Blue Jays need to be careful, but they still plan to let their horses run.
“We’ve talked to them,” manager John Schneider said. “José was a good example in Anaheim, where he could have gone back out for the eighth inning. I figured seven strong was good. They know that every time out, they’ve got about 100 pitches or a little bit more and it just depends on where we are in the game. They’re ready for it. It’s a balancing act, but not a whole lot different.”
Let’s use 2021 as the cutoff point, coming out of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, to give us close to a four-year sample. Here’s where those three rank among all MLB pitchers in terms of workload:
1. Aaron Nola — 733 1/3 IP
2. Logan Webb — 721 1/3
3. Corbin Burnes — 716 1/3
4. Zack Wheeler — 707
5. José Berríos — 703 1/3
6. Kevin Gausman — 696
7. Luis Castillo — 688 2/3
8. Chris Bassitt — 678
Gausman lasted just five-plus innings on Monday and allowed four runs (three earned), but even with the Blue Jays at 58-67, his mind is on carrying the load and protecting his bullpen. August has always been “a grind” for Gausman, and he’s adjusted his schedule to counteract that, trying to be more efficient with his recovery days and throwing fewer pitches in bullpen sessions.
“The first thing he said when I took him out was, ‘My bad,’” Schneider said. “That’s the kind of guy he is. Go out and do your thing, Kevin. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the league for the last handful of years. Down the stretch, it’s just about setting a good example. He wants to end on a strong note in an up and down year for him and his standards. I’m going to give him every chance to do that and I’m confident he will.”
Down the stretch, Gausman wants to “set the tone for what we expect from the young guys,” and who better to follow than Gausman? He’s been a top prospect and he’s been DFA’d. He’s risen, failed, adapted and reached the top of this game.
Part of setting that tone is finishing in a way the Blue Jays want to start 2025. There will come times where Schneider chooses to lift a starter just a bit early, like the example he uses with Berríos against the Angels, but that’s more about dodging unnecessary risk than softening a 190-inning season to 188. That won’t make much of a difference.
“They’re well accustomed to the workload that comes with a Major League season,” Schneider said. “If it is an extra inning or two here and there, I think it’s going to add up just fine.”
This is a conversation we’ll have again next year. This veteran group has saved them from depth problems over and over again, but the Blue Jays can only tempt fate for so long. Starters like these three veterans are rare for a reason.
Be the first to comment