The Toronto Maple Leafs have a lot to like about their start to the new year. Morgan Rielly looks like the offensive blueliner they need, while Auston Matthews and William Nylander are providing the juice up front. Easton Cowan will get his moment to shine on the top line in their second game against divisional rivals, the Detroit Red Wings.
However, there is an early warning sign that the team may be haunted by a ghost of last year. This might be a bigger concern than it actually is, or it’s a case of history repeating itself.
Maple Leafs Lead the League in Concerning Stats
Last season, the Maple Leafs didn't lose when holding a multi-goal lead until Game #43 (Jan. 9 vs Carolina)
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) October 12, 2025
It’s early in the new 2025-26 season, but the Maple Leafs are leading the league. The unfortunate truth is that they are leading in stats that you don’t want to lead in.
For starters, they rank last in the league in defensive zone time. They have spent 45.2 percent of their total ice time in the D-zone. If that trend continues, the Maple Leafs will not be a playoff team, let alone a Stanley Cup Contender.
Jonas Siegel of The Athletic has also noticed this trend. He recently wrote about it, jumping off the information highlighted above.
“As of Sunday morning, the Leafs rank second-last in the NHL in O-zone time,” Siegel wrote on October 13. “They’ve spent the most time of any team in the D-zone. Narrow things down to just even-strength minutes and the Leafs rank 30th in O-zone time and 31st in D-zone time (i.e., second-most).”
“The sample is obviously small and comes largely from Saturday’s game in Detroit, when the Leafs could not establish a forecheck and were sloppy with pucks, in the second period especially.”
The average amount of ice time spent in the defensive zone this year is 41.1 percent. The Maple Leafs have some work to do to reach that point.
Concerning Stat or Growing Trend?
These stats aren’t a good look, mainly because they aren’t an anomaly.
“What makes this worth flagging? It was an issue at times last season, particularly in the second half,” Siegel wrote.
To add insult to injury, this was something that head coach Craig Berube wanted to avoid. And he felt the best way to prevent it was by strengthening their forecheck in the offensive zone.
“I thought that we didn’t secondary forecheck enough, in keeping pucks alive in the O-zone, to create more O-zone time,” Berube told Siegel in an exclusive interview in September. “And I think we can do a better job of that. And that’s our (defence) included, hedged up and killing more plays in the o-zone. That’s where it starts for me. The shot attempts for sure can go up, and they will go up.”
“I think our D can do a better job of getting more pucks to the net, too. We gotta shoot pucks quicker. It’s got to be a first option.”
While the shot attempts might go up, they haven’t yet this year.
“Shot attempts at five-on-five through two games: 109-79 for the opposition,” Siegel wrote on October 13.
Even in the preseason, the Maple Leafs were allowing too many shots on goal. On The Real Kyper and Bourne show, the hosts expressed concern about the domino effect of spending too much time in the defensive zone.
“Stolarz was by far and away their best player,” Nick Kypreos reasoned with his co-hosts on the October 3 show. “Do you want to put that type of night on him, less than a week to go from your opener? That he’s gotta see 45-50 shots on goal?”
They aren’t allowing 45-50 shots so far, but they aren’t where they would like to be after two regular season games. They rank fifth-worst in shots allowed per game with 33. Of the four teams that have allowed more shots on goal per game, the Philadelphia Flyers, San Jose Sharks, and Columbus Blue Jackets did not make the playoffs last year. The other team that made the playoffs was the Winnipeg Jets.
Other Worrisome Maple Leafs Stats
There is also a lack of offensive power plaguing the team. Several statistics highlight that.
The Maple Leafs are the seventh-worst team in shots on goal. In two games, they have mustered 50 total shots (25 per game).
They have also been incredibly lucky – and that luck could run out quickly. They have scored eight goals in two games. According to MoneyPuck, they rank 22nd in the league with 6.11 expected goals for (xGF).
Their 16 percent shooting percentage is the biggest reason for the discrepancy. That is the third-highest in the league. For context, the Maple Leafs had an 11.6 shooting percentage last year, ranking sixth overall. The Washington Capitals led the league with a 12.6 shooting percentage.
Moving forward, the Maple Leafs can’t rely on outscoring their way out of their problems, mainly because they aren’t shooting enough to rationalize that strategy.
A combination of better defense and more offense is the only prescription that will cure the ailment they are currently under.
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