Having won the first two games of their series against Atlanta only to drop the third and fourth games to end up with a split, the Mets (55-50) begin the day in the third Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re 1.5 games back of Atlanta for the first one, a half-game back of the Padres for the second, and lead the Diamondbacks by a half-game and the Cardinals by one game in the aforementioned third spot.
The Wild Card field has diminished a bit, at least for now, as the Nationals, Reds, and Cubs are all five or more games back of the Mets. The Giants, at 3.5 back, are somewhere between the two packs of teams, and the Pirates are two game back. There are still a lot of big games ahead for the Mets, especially the ones that they play against National League teams.
Beginning tonight, however, the Mets are set to host the Twins (58-46), a team that currently occupies the second Wild Card spot in the American League. They’re 4.5 games back of the Yankees for the first spot, two games up on their division rival Royals for the third one, and are three games clear of the Red Sox, 3.5 games up on the Mariners, and a slightly more comfortable six games ahead of the Rays.
The Wild Card race isn’t the Twins’ only path into the playoffs, though. Minnesota is 4.5 games back of the first-place Guardians in the American League Central, a gap that’s hardly impossible to make up over the final two months of the regular season.
At the plate, the Twins have been one of the best teams in baseball this year. In total, they have a 113 wRC+ that ranks fourth—and is tied with the Mets. They’ve scored 4.86 runs per game, which ranks sixth—just ahead of the Mets’ average of 4.82 runs scored per game that ranks seventh.
On the mound, Minnesota ranks 19th with a collective 4.09 ERA. And once again, that’s just a tick better than the Mets, as New York has a 4.19 ERA that ranks 21st. The Twins’ rotation has a 4.31 ERA, while their bullpen has a 3.75 ERA that ranks 13th in baseball.
The Mets are catching the Twins at a time that Royce Lewis is healthy, a rarity thus far in his major league career. But when he’s been on the field, he’s been spectacular, as he’s hit 11 home runs with a .296/.358/.694 line, a 186 wRC+, and 1.5 fWAR in just 109 plate appearances. He’s so good that it doesn’t feel unrealistic to point out that if he were to play a full season of about 650 plate appearances, he’s on pace for 9.0 fWAR.
Like the Mets, the Twins have a bunch of hitters who are above league average by wRC+ this year. Among their regulars, almost-Met Carlos Correa has been their best hitter other than Lewis with a 152 wRC+, but he’s on the injured list right now with plantar fasciitis. Jose Miranda (149 wRC+) and a currently-healthy Byron Buxton (133 wRC+) are the second and third best hitters the Mets will see in this series. And Willi Castro, Trevor Larnach, Carlos Santana, Ryan Jeffers, and Max Kepler all sit somewhere between those guys and league average.
As good as the Twins’ bullpen has been, it’s worth pointing out that closer Jhoan Duran isn’t having the dominant type of season that he had in 2022 or 2023. His strikeout rate has dropped significantly, and his fastball—while still very fast—is down a bit in average velocity at 100.4 miles per hour. He missed time early in the season with an oblique injury and hasn’t quite gotten fully back to being himself just yet.
In total, the Twins are a formidable opponent, especially since both Lewis and Buxton are on the active roster to begin the series. These teams are so evenly matched that none of the possible outcomes in the series would be the least bit surprising.
Monday, July 29: Jose Quintana vs. Simeon Woods Richardson at 7:10 PM EDT on SNY
Quintana (2024): 107.1 IP, 85 K, 39 BB, 18 HR, 4.02 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 103 ERA-
Quintana continues to be an acceptable back-of-the-rotation type, and his first start coming out of the All-Star break went relatively well, as he gave up just one run in five innings against the Yankees. He issued five walks in that start, though, which is far from ideal.
Woods Richardson (2024): 88.0 IP, 76 K, 25 BB, 8 HR, 3.27 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 82 ERA-
The Mets sent Woods Richardson to the Blue Jays five years ago yesterday as part of the Marcus Stroman trade, but Woods Richardson is still just 23 years old. Toronto wound up sending him to the Twins as part of their trade for José Berríos two years and two days later. Woods Richardson got cups of coffee in Minnesota in 2022 and 2023, but he’s having a very good first full season in the big leagues. After sputtering a bit in late June, he’s pitched well in July—with a 2.86 ERA in 22.0 innings over his past four starts.
Tuesday, July 30: Sean Manaea vs. David Festa at 7:10 PM EDT on SNY
Manaea (2024): 106.0 IP, 101 K, 45 BB, 12 HR, 3.74 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 96 ERA-
Of the five pitchers in the Mets’ rotation right now, Manaea ranks third in ERA. His last couple of starts were a bit rough, but he has a 3.34 ERA in the month of July.
Festa (2024): 14.1 IP, 15 K, 3 BB, 5 HR, 8.16 ERA, 6.22 FIP, 205 ERA-
A 24-year-old righty, Festa made his major league debut on June 27. In three appearances thus far, he’s struggled—particularly with home runs.
Wednesday, July 31: Luis Severino vs. Pablo López at 1:10 PM EDT on SNY
Severino (2024): 120.2 IP, 94 K, 42 BB, 12 HR, 3.58 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 92 ERA-
Whether or not you’d entrust a big game to Severino or Manaea is more or less a toss-up, but Severino has the edge in ERA. He had a stinker of a start against the Pirates on July 5, but in three outings since then, he has a 2.08 ERA in 17.1 innings of work.
López (2024): 118.0 IP, 135 K, 25 BB, 19 HR, 4.73 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 119 ERA-
Among qualified starting pitchers, Lópezhas the third highest difference between his ERA and his FIP, as the former is more than a full run higher than the latter. Strikeouts haven’t been an issue for him this year, but his ground ball and strand rates are down significantly from last season.
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