This season has been both predictable and unexpected. We’ve seen typical MLB powerhouses, such as the New York Yankees, re-emerge from down seasons, but we’ve also seen surprises such as the Cleveland Guardians having the best record in the American League or the Atlanta Braves going 13-14 in May.
Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks seem to have a World Series hangover, with Arizona hovering around .500 and Texas four games under that. Both the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets have come back from slow starts to put themselves squarely in the — very muddled — National League wild-card race. From a player perspective, we’ve seen Kansas City Royals rookie pitching sensation Paul Skenes take the league by storm, Gunnar Henderson keep up with Aaron Judge in the early AL MVP race and young stars Bobby Witt Jr. and Jarren Duran solidify themselves as the future of their franchises. And, of course, we can’t forget about Shohei Ohtani, who continues to put up eye-popping numbers at the plate this season despite undergoing Tommy John surgery last September, which has kept him off the mound in 2024.
How will all of these teams perform in the second half? Who will dominate in the homestretch? And what does your club have to play for?
We’ve broken down all 30 squads into five tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield and Jorge Castillo to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We’ve also included Doolittle’s final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.
Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle’s power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.
Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within their respective tiers.
Record: 53-42 | Projected final record: 86-76
Division title odds: 1.8% | Playoff odds: 46% | Championship odds: 1.2%
What makes them a contender:
A better-than-expected starting rotation and a versatile, exciting lineup. Boston’s rotation was thought to be in shambles when the season started, but All-Star Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford have been outstanding to buoy an otherwise thin group. Offensively, the Red Sox can win games in different ways with a variety of people. They rank eighth in the majors in home runs and sixth in stolen bases. All-Star Game MVP Jarren Duran and Connor Wong have posted breakout seasons, Tyler O’Neill has been a welcomed power infusion and Rob Refsnyder has feasted on left-handed pitching while Rafael Devers continues anchoring the lineup with another stellar season. The group would only improve if first baseman Triston Casas, out since April with a rib injury, comes off the IL.
What to expect from here:
Casas’s return would give the club a jolt in its pursuit of a postseason berth. As would acquiring a starting pitcher to eat innings. The rotation beyond Houck and Crawford is filled with question marks — no other starters have an ERA under 4.00. Manager Alex Cora has publicly applied pressure on the front office to acquire reinforcements, but nothing is guaranteed from an ownership group that has recently been oddly reluctant to take on money. — Castillo
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