The Los Angeles Dodgers-New York Yankees World Series is both baseball’s biggest clash of the titans since the last time the two teams met in the World Series (way back in 1981, as hard as that is to believe) as well as a matchup with a clearly defined favorite in the Dodgers, who are a -122 favorite at FanDuel and a +420 bet to win the Fall Classic in six games.
The Dodgers led the majors with 98 wins this season and displayed their vast depth during a six-game victory over the New York Mets in the National League Championship Series.
Los Angeles scored 46 runs — the most ever by a National League team in a postseason series — against the Mets. But while Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts were their usual superhuman selves, the NLCS MVP was 5-foot-10 utilityman Tommy Edman, who had 11 RBIs — nine fewer than he had in the regular season — and helped the Dodgers win both games they played without a hobbled Freddie Freeman, who batted .167 while battling a sprained right ankle.
The Dodgers are also so deep in the bullpen that manager Dave Roberts was able to punt lopsided losses in Games 2 and 5 so that the high-leverage relievers would be available to pitch as often as possible behind rotation patched together with duct tape and paper clips.
And that wafer-thin rotation is why the Yankees, with a much deeper cadre of starting pitchers, can win this World Series — especially if battle-tested ace Gerrit Cole is victorious in Friday’s Game 1.
Only Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander have thrown more innings in the playoffs since 2013 than Cole, who has a 2.98 ERA in 120 2/3 frames. Cole has not been that Hall of Fame version of himself since returning from a right elbow injury that cost him the first three-and-a-half months of the season.
But his 3.40 ERA over 111 1/3 innings (counting the playoffs) provides him a better record of recent reliability than the Dodgers’ trio of Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, none of whom threw more than 90 innings for the club (Flaherty finished at 162 innings between Los Angeles and the Detroit Tigers).
A strong outing by Cole would increase the pressure on the Dodgers’ trio of starters and reduce the margin of error Roberts has with navigating his bullpen.
Flaherty, Los Angeles’ likely Game 1 starter, has a 4.91 ERA in 40 1/3 innings in the postseason, including a 7.04 ERA in three starts this month. He tossed a gem against the Mets in the NLCS opener, but his seven scoreless innings included eight outs on balls hit harder than 95 mph. Yamamoto and Buehler, who were limited to 165 1/3 regular season innings by shoulder and elbow woes, have posted a 5.48 ERA while averaging 4 1/3 innings in five October starts.
With a strong performance Friday, Cole can also lessen the pressure on the remainder of the Yankees’ less-proven postseason — Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil — as well as their bullpen, which posted a 2.56 ERA in the ALDS and ALCS.
Rodon, the projected Game 2 starter, has been much better at home (3.98 ERA in 124 1/3 innings) than on the road (5.36 ERA in 129 1/3 innings) in two seasons with the Yankees. But taking the mound with a 1-0 series lead will make it more likely New York gets the calmer version of the hot-and-cold Rodon, who has a 5.82 postseason ERA and acknowledged he got too emotional in Game 2 of the AL Division Series against the Kansas City Royals, when he gave up four runs in 3 2/3 innings in a 4-2 loss.
Schmidt and Gil, who are in line to start Games 3 and 4 at Yankee Stadium, have a 4.05 ERA while failing to get out of the fifth inning in three postseason starts. A strong start by Cole in Game 1 and his likely presence in a Game 5 if the latter is necessary means manager Aaron Boone can rely heavily on the bullpen in the Bronx — and greatly improve the chances the Yankees finally win their first championship since 2009.
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