The St. Louis Blues made the most shocking moves of the 2024 offseason thus far when they sent offer sheets to Edmonton Oilers RFAs Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway. These two signings put the Oilers in a very difficult position given the teams’ cap structure. Now, recently appointed general manager Stan Bowman will have to make the first two decisions of his tenure. While additional moves are necessary to make the salary work for the reason, the Oilers must match Holloway’s contract, let Broberg leave, and figure out the rest later.
Retaining Holloway is a No Brainer
There is a strong consensus opinion among Oilers fans that matching Holloway’s two-year, $2,290,457 annual average (AAV) is a no-brainer. The 22-year-old showed he was capable of joining the team in a full-time capacity last season. Additionally, with the departure of Ryan McLeod, there is a clear opening in the Oilers’ bottom six for Holloway to get consistent ice time.
As well, Holloway’s contract would only yield a third-round pick as compensation if the Oilers do not match. While he is not vital to the team’s success this season, his age, positional value, skillset, and upside are far too valuable to lose for just a third-round pick. The pick, which would be the Blues’ 2025 third-round pick, would not return a player of equal value in a midseason trade nor would it be likely to land a player of Holloway’s caliber if the selection is maintained. Even if the Oilers made this draft choice, the prospect would not see the NHL for at least four or five more seasons, rendering them useless in the Connor McDavid era.
Broberg Must Be Let Go
At 23 years old, the story is far from written for Broberg. He has shown impressive flashes in recent seasons, and despite progressing slower than anticipated, Oilers fans have held optimism that he could still develop into a top-four defenseman. While I agree he can still become a top-four defenseman, I do not believe Edmonton will be the place where he will reach this potential.
Broberg greatly struggled last season despite many fans claiming he had a strong playoff. In his playoff run, he had a 43.4 xG%, according to MoneyPuck. This is largely to blame on his usage as a right-defenseman instead of his typical left-side duties, but this is an issue that was not going to go away this season.
The Oilers have Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, and Brett Kulak signed to play the left side, and just Evan Bouchard and Cody Ceci as right-handed lineup regulars. Broberg is young and inexperienced, and his concerning performance as a right-handed defenseman provides no reason to believe this season will be any different.
The Blues are undergoing a retool and can afford to be patient through Broberg’s struggles, while the Oilers are in a “Cup or Bust” season. Holding onto Broberg would force head coach Kris Knoblauch to spend energy on developing Broberg while the team is focused on winning games, a clear recipe for disaster.
With Broberg’s two-year, $4,580,917 AAV contract, the Oilers would receive the Blues 2025 second-round pick as compensation. Not only is Broberg’s ability and usage a massive question mark heading into the season, but that cap hit is a massive concern. To be getting paid that much money, the Oilers better be getting a top-four defenseman, and there is absolutely no reason to believe Broberg is at that level — at least not yet.
As well, a second-round pick is a great asset to add to the Oilers arsenal. The top-six is strong but concerns with Evander Kane’s health create uncertainty in the forward core, and the defense has a lot of question marks surrounding Nurse and Ceci. With the team’s 2025 first-round pick gone, adding a second-rounder will allow Bowman to add necessary pieces at the 2025 Trade Deadline.
The second-round pick the Oilers will receive is quite valuable. In a stronger-than-normal Central Division, the Blues could quickly join the bottom 10 teams in the NHL. As well, second-round picks are typically valuable at trade deadlines.
In 2023 the New York Rangers acquired Patrick Kane for a second-round pick and other small assets. That same year the Winnipeg Jets landed Nino Niederreiter for just a second-rounder. In 2022 the Penguins landed Rickard Rakell for a second-rounder and two depth pieces after the Toronto Maple Leafs landed Norris Trophy winner Mark Giordano from the Seattle Kraken in a package containing two second-round picks. The list goes on, with second-rounders proving to be valuable year after year.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
Even with Broberg’s value being higher than a second-round pick, the Oilers must overcome the sunk cost fallacy and let him leave. The Sunk Cost Fallacy is a “tendency to follow through on something that we’ve already invested heavily in (be it time, money, effort, emotional energy, etc.), even when giving up is clearly a better idea.” Broberg is overpaid, and holding onto what he “could be” despite all signs pointing to him continuing to underwhelm while being overpaid would be a borderline insane decision for the Oilers to make. This is by no means saying he is a bad player — because he is not — but given the Oilers’ contention window, paying so much money for a massive question mark would be a disaster.
Oilers’ Future Offseasons
The Oilers’ decisions on these two offer sheets must take into consideration future decisions, too. With Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard free agents in the 2025 offseason, adding Broberg’s high cap hit in the 2025-26 season would put the already salary-tight Oilers in an even tougher situation.
At best Broberg’s contract would be fair value, but even then the Oilers would be forced to package Kulak or Ceci with additional assets to create necessary cap space. At worst, the team would be paying Broberg over $4.5 million to be their seventh defenseman.
It is also important to note why matching each offer sheet and trading one, or both, of the players does not make sense. The NHL is a business and this decision would set a dangerous precedent and upset players. Even though the Oilers were not the ones to negotiate these contracts, trading a player immediately after signing them, without their approval, would be catastrophic in future negotiations. Teams, agents, and players know to not take these moves personally, and while the Carolina Hurricanes and Montreal Canadiens feud a few seasons back made fans think there is bad blood following offer sheets or moves of this nature, that is not the case.
In 2010, then-Chicago Blackhawk Niklas Hjalmarsson signed a four-year offer sheet with the San Jose Sharks. The contract was matched and he proceeded to win two Stanley Cups in Chicago. He did what he had to do to earn a fair salary, and the Blackhawks did what they had to do to stay competitive. There will be no bad blood in the Oilers locker room, regardless of the team’s decisions, and it is highly unlikely the Oilers will submit retaliatory offer sheets for future Blues’ players. This is a business, and everyone treats it that way.
With just six more days for the Oilers to make a decision, expect multiple roster players to be mentioned in trade rumors. Nothing needs to be finalized soon, but it will be easier to make the moves necessary to free up cap space now than in the final days of the preseason.
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