Much has been made this week about the discrepancy in talent between the Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles. With good reason, too.
The Orioles have the superior everyday lineup and better performing starting rotation and bullpen. It’s no wonder then that after the Jays’ lost 10-1 on Tuesday night they trailed their rivals by 11 1/2 games.
The birds of a different colour have become the team the Jays thought they would be. But they didn’t get there by making a lot of splashy trades or free-agent signings. Instead — at least temporarily — they have mastered the art of player development.
A seemingly endless list of top prospects have ascended through their system over the last three years. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman arrived in 2022; Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg and Grayson Rodriguez made their debuts in 2023.
The wave continues this season. Jackson Holliday and Connor Norby have been among those to arrive. Not every player has worked out, but the sheer number of options meant they didn’t have to, with a farm system that entered the year ranked No. 1 by ESPN. Plenty more guys are on the way.
Contrast those results with the Jays, who have one of the league’s weakest systems. They started the year 24th according to ESPN, and nothing has changed that would warrant a promotion. After Alejandro Kirk debuted in 2020 and Alek Manoah followed a year later, the pipeline ran dry.
The one exception has been Davis Schneider, who wasn’t considered a priority but forced his way into their long-term plans with his play. The issue is, it took far too long for the organization to show it believed in his results.
Schneider’s hot start wasn’t enough to make him an everyday player last season, and he didn’t receive an at-bat in the playoffs. Then he started this year on the bench and it took nearly three weeks before the club conceded he was their top-performing hitter and gave him more playing time, almost begrudgingly.
Spencer Horwitz is facing similar obstacles despite hitting .332 with a .951 on-base plus slugging percentage in Buffalo. Behind him are a few interesting infield prospects in Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez. Left-hander Ricky Tiedemann, while frequently hurt, remains the best of the bunch. Beyond that, there isn’t much.
Issues with player development and a lack of minor-league depth are why the Jays found themselves in a tricky situation on Tuesday. For the last two years, the Jays haven’t had a prospect ready to handle the workload of a big-league starting pitcher, not even temporarily.
That’s why they were left to revert to — in the words of former manager Charlie Montoyo — “an opener and a guy.”
Trevor Richards got the start in place of an injured Manoah and was backed up by Bowden Francis, a pitcher the Jays had determined was better suited coming out of the bullpen. Richards tossed two scoreless, but then Francis surrendered four runs, including a pair of homers to Ryan Mountcastle, in another lopsided loss.
An argument can be made that the Orioles stockpiled prospects by fielding a bad team for an extended period. From 2018-21, they lost at least 100 games in each of the three full seasons. That guaranteed early picks in the draft, but their success hasn’t been limited to prime selections.
Henderson, second in the majors with 19 homers, was a second-round pick in 2019. Norby, the club’s No. 5 prospect, went in the second round of 2021. Starter Kyle Bradish was acquired as a prospect through trade, and closer Yennier Canó was picked off the scrap heap from the Minnesota Twins. Before long, international signee Samuel Basallo and 2020 fourth-round pick Coby Mayo figure to enter the fray.
The Jays’ track record is much sketchier. Since general manager Ross Atkins arrived in 2016, the list of failed first-rounders includes T.J. Zeuch and Logan Warmoth. Jordan Groshans and Austin Martin never developed as expected and were shipped out in trades. Gunnar Hoglund was used to acquire Matt Chapman from the Oakland A’s before he ever threw an official pitch.
That leaves Manoah and the most recent first-round picks: Brandon Barriera and Arjun Nimmala. The jury is out on both, but Barriera has logged just 21 2/3 innings over the last two years. Nimmala, still only 18, was recently demoted from Class-A Dunedin to the Florida Coast League.
Based on this season’s results, there is already a large divide between these teams. Considering that Baltimore entered the year with six of ESPN’s top prospects and the Jays had just one, the gap only figures to grow.
The Jays’ regime arrived boasting about the desire to build a sustainable winner, with a constant flow of talent arriving from the minors. Well, that tap has only offered little drips since 2021 and that seems unlikely to change in a meaningful way any time soon, much to the detriment of those in Toronto.
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