Looks like a “breather day,” as manager Brandon Hyde called it, did this team good. Last night, the Orioles put together a tightly pitched 4-2 win to halt the Cleveland Guardians in their tracks and break a season-high five-game losing streak.
Earlier in the day, Hyde had given players permission to go out and grab lunch, report late to the ballpark, and skip on-field batting practice. Explained Hyde, “You do that periodically to try to keep guys as fresh as possible and not have them at the ballpark for 11 hours a day like normal.”
Over the past two seasons, the Orioles have been so good that even the skipper, it seems, had started to worry about a five-game skid. Was it fatigue? Pitchers falling to injury? Offensive slumps? A tough schedule? Simple bad luck?
During the stretch in question, there was certainly some pretty poor play by an otherwise-great team. That definitely includes the pitching. O’s pitchers allowed 40 runs in five games, an average of 7.71 earned runs per game, the worst mark of any MLB team in this span. Both Orioles starters and relievers posted an ERA of plus-seven, so the blame is equally divided there.
For each of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Albert Suárez and Cole Irvin, last week’s outings were one of their worst of the year. (The other O’s defeat, a 3-2 loss to Cleveland behind Cade Povich, wasn’t really Povich’s fault.)
One factor at issue: Houston and Cleveland proved tough lineups to silence, but this wasn’t purely O’s pitchers making them look good. Over the past week, no MLB team has outhit Houston and Cleveland’s offense is third-best. In other words, the Orioles caught two teams who are heating up at the plate.
One more important factor: take a look at fielding-independent pitching. For the starters, there was a gap of over two runs between ERA and FIP (5.10). But when it comes to the bullpen, the ERA-FIP gap was even more surprising: nearly five runs (a 2.76 FIP).
Basically, defensive flubs screwed over starters and relievers, but especially the latter. For instance, during the 14-11 meltdown on June 21, two bad plays helped extend a nine-run sixth inning. Only one was counted as an error—a bad throw by Anthony Santander—but Gunnar Henderson’s failure to get two outs on a bases-loaded grounder was also typical.
This is, of course, surprising because the Orioles are normally a capable defensive team. So fatigue or bad luck seems strongly likely. On Wednesday night, James McCann made a rare throwing error to prolong Irvin’s misery on the mound. McCann is far from a mistake-prone catcher; his error is representative. This has just been a weird stretch.
As for the frequently-complained-about offense, it’s easy to grumble about holes in the lineup, but the Orioles offense was the second-best in MLB during this stretch. So we can ease up on the gas a bit there.
This is all to say, there is no reason to hit the panic button. As columnist Peter Schmuck pointed out, the Orioles got incredibly lucky to have “dropped this lousy week” exactly as the AL East frontrunner Yankees floundered. Instead of falling far behind in the division, over the last seven days the Orioles actually gained a half-game on New York, who just this week have dropped two in a row to the disappointing Mets.
Meanwhile, it’s true that last season’s 101-win team never lost five in a row at any point, but they did drop four in a row twice. One of those streaks came on June 27-July 1, with two surprising losses against the Cincinnati Reds and two to the Twins. But the Orioles broke the schneid with a win on July 2 to avoid getting swept by Minnesota, then proceeded to win eight straight. So who knows what slumps mean; perhaps very little.
As of now, the Birds still have a 98.9% chance to make postseason, per BaseballReference. That, and a 12.9% chance to win World Series… whatever that means. As we know, the MLB postseason is wacky, so let’s focus on the things we can control: winning the division. And that is something the Orioles, plus a pitcher or two, are well-poisitioned to do.
Asked about the now-buried losing streak, Cedric Mullins said, “Some guys are beat up, some guys are tired, but it’s a matter of being able to push through that.” Last night’s winning starter Grayson Rodriguez added, “[We] had some unlucky breaks over the last week. Obviously been swinging the bat well. I really don’t think we struggled all that much.”
They’re both right. The Orioles have had one day off this month, their offense has been excellent, and despite all the pitching injuries, they’re still hanging in there. The All-Star break should bring some pitching depth in the form of trades, too. It’s a marathon season, and all the attention paid to the recent losing streak is just evidence of how good they’ve been.
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