The Phillies fly to Atlanta on Sunday night after wrapping up a six-game homestand and they’ll have their top two arms on the mound to begin the series while apparently again missing the Braves’ Cy Young frontrunner.
Zack Wheeler will start Tuesday’s series opener, Aaron Nola will pitch Wednesday, and while Thursday is currently TBD, it will be Cristopher Sanchez as long as the lefty comes out of the weekend feeling normal after throwing a 99-pitch complete game on Saturday.
The Phillies’ lead over Atlanta will be no less than seven games when the series begins. The Braves have been ravaged by injuries and haven’t played consistently well since late April. They have a lot to play for now because the Mets have been nipping at their heels since the end of July.
The Phils are unlikely to see the Braves’ ace, Chris Sale, who is the National League’s leading Cy Young candidate at 14-3 with a 2.62 ERA. He leads the majors in wins and strikeouts and the NL in ERA. Sale pitched Saturday, so he would be on regular rest for Thursday’s series finale, but it appears the Braves will instead start Reynaldo Lopez on Tuesday, Max Fried on Wednesday and rookie Spencer Schwellenbach Thursday.
Lopez, a first-time All-Star, will be returning from a three-week stint on the injured list caused by forearm inflammation. He has a 2.06 ERA in 19 starts but will likely be limited to four innings or so in his return.
Fried missed nearly the same length of time with a forearm injury of his own. He returned on August 4 and has been far from his best, allowing 13 runs and 27 baserunners in 13⅔ innings over three starts.
Schwellenbach has continued the annual summer trend of a young Brave bursting onto the scene. Through 13 starts, he’s struck out 10.1 batters per nine innings while walking just 1.7. He has a 2.86 ERA with 53 strikeouts and five walks over his last seven starts.
The Braves will have a couple of offensive weapons they didn’t have the last time these teams met July 5-7 in Atlanta. Michael Harris II is back from a hamstring injury that cost him two months. Jorge Soler has done damage atop the lineup since being acquired at the trade deadline, though he’s missed the last few games with a hamstring injury so his status for the week is unclear.
The Phils should also see Whit Merrifield, who has been playing second base in place of the injured Ozzie Albies.
The Braves skew right-handed with Harris and Matt Olson their only real threats from the left side, and it’s been a down year for Olson. It makes it easier for the Phillies to match up with them, particularly late in games with hard-throwing right-handers Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering and Carlos Estevez.
First, Atlanta will have to deal with Wheeler’s repertoire. As a Phillie, he’s 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA in 14 regular-season meetings with the Braves.
So much is expected of him that Wheeler has almost quietly put together his best season as a Phillie. He has a 2.72 ERA compared to 3.06 the prior four years. He has a 0.98 WHIP compared to 1.06 the prior four years. His opponents’ batting average of .193 is 32 points lower than the prior four years.
He’s just who they’d want on the mound to begin the series and he lines up to start twice on the road trip.
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