Phillies Power Rankings: Starting rotation in flux heading into the postseason?

The Philadelphia Phillies have finally locked up the division and are officially headed to their third straight postseason. The benefit of securing a spot in the playoffs with five games to go is the manager can give rest to some of the everyday players but also shuffle the starting rotation to how he sees fit.

And manager Rob Thompson will do just that. He will give his starting rotation a good, hard look and make sure that he sets the order in the most optimal way in order to put the Phillies in the best position to make a deep playoff run.

Phillies Power Rankings: Starting rotation in flux heading into the postseason?

The Phillies’ starting rotation has performed incredibly well for the majority of the season. In fact, three of four pitchers who will start games in the postseason were named All-Stars this season. But just because the Phillies came in with a particular order for the starting pitchers and just because some have more pedigree or experience than others, Thompson and the coaching staff will surely look at who’s performing the best at this moment to set the order.

No. 4: Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suárez is a bit of a postseason legend in Philadelphia. He has played a vital role in both playoff runs having made seven total starts and two bullpen appearances, including the save that got them to the World Series in 2022. His postseason ERA is 1.62 over 33 1/3 innings.

There were lofty expectations for the 29-year-old left-hander coming into the 2024 season. And for the first 12 starts of the season, he far exceeded those expectations. From March 31 to June 1, he made 12 starts, recording a 1.70 ERA with 79 strikeouts, and held his opponents to a .167 batting average. He was in the conversation for Cy Young and named to his first All-Star Game.

But in the second half of the season, Suárez battled some injuries, and something has seemed “off” for him. Over his last 14 starts, from June 8 to Sept. 21, he has pitched to a 4.65 ERA with 60 strikeouts, and his opponents are batting .297 against him.

Suárez has shown glimpses of finding his form, but it’s hard to see Thompson looking at his recent performances and feeling comfortable putting him higher in the pecking order in the rotation. There even may be an opportunity to use Suárez out of the bullpen if the series is hanging in the balance and they need his versatility.

No. 3: Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sánchez, the 27-year-old left-hander, has been a revelation this season for the Phillies. Prior to 2024, the most innings Sanchez had pitched in a single MLB season was 99 1/3. In fact, over the previous three years, he pitched a total of 152 innings with a 4.14 ERA. In 2024 alone, he has accumulated 182 2/3 innings and has a 3.32 ERA.

Along with throwing two complete games, one being a shutout, Sánchez has 153 strikeouts, just 44 walks, and was named to his first All-Star Game. He has been as consistent as they come, and the Phillies’ coaching staff has rewarded him with trust.

In his last eight starts, he has pitched 50 1/3 innings with a 2.50 ERA. More importantly, the Phillies have won seven of those games — the one they lost was a 3-2 loss to the Atlanta Braves when the offense only mustered three hits.

Sánchez ranks in the 98th percentile in chase rate, 96th percentile in ground ball rate, and 99th percentile in off-speed run value with an astronomical 17 run value with his changeup. His changeup has been especially lethal this season and has proven to be one of the best out-pitches in baseball.

Though Sánchez doesn’t have the playoff experience like some of the other starters on the pitching staff, he has clearly shown this season he deserves to be seen as a weapon for the postseason run.

No. 2: Aaron Nola

After inking a new contract this past offseason, Aaron Nola was expected to take that second “ace” position and run with it. As Nola has come to be known for, his season has been relatively up and down.

When Nola has his stuff and is dealing, there aren’t many other pitchers you would want on the mound. But on the flip side, he has been prone to have that one or two really bad innings where it all falls apart.

Take the last month, for example. In his two most recent starts, he went seven innings and six innings while allowing just one and two earned runs, respectively. In the two starts before that, he lasted just 4 2/3 and 4 1/3 innings, allowing four and six earned runs, respectively. The two immediately preceding those “off” starts, he went seven and six innings, allowing zero and two earned runs. Back and forth on the pendulum for Nola.

On the season, he has made a league high 32 starts, pitching 194 1/3 innings to a 3.52 ERA. As expected, many of the categories tracked by Baseball Savant fall in the middle range for Nola. He is in the 45th percentile for whiff rate, 54th percentile in hard hit percentile, and 55th percentile in strikeout rate.

But he has historically come through in the season’s biggest moments and playoffs. In the 2023 playoffs, he had a 2.35 ERA over 23 innings and four starts. He has also been the starting pitcher to clinch the playoffs in 2022 and 2023 and the pitcher to clinch the NL East this season. To make a deep run, the Phillies and Thompson will have to lean on him throughout the postseason.

No. 1: Zack Wheeler

It should come as no surprise that Zack Wheeler comes in at No. 1 on this power rankings list. Not only has Wheeler been the best and most consistent pitcher for the Phillies, but he has also been, one of, if not the best, starting pitchers in all of baseball.

As we enter the last few games of the season, Wheeler has started 31 games and has a 2.56 ERA with a league-low 0.96 WHIP. He’s second among pitchers in the NL in fWAR at 5.2 and is, again, in the conversation for the NL Cy Young Award.

In his last five starts, he has registered a 1.64 ERA and is holding opponents to a batting average of just .175. He has been the definition of stability for the Phillies in 2024.

According to Baseball Savant, he is in the 90th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, chase rate, and extension. He is in the 83rd percentile in strikeout rate and the 86th percentile in hard-hit rate.

And the 34-year-old right-hander doesn’t slow down when the lights are at their brightest. In the playoffs over the last two years, he has pitched to a 2.42 ERA over 63 1/3 innings. He has appeared in 11 playoff games with 10 starts and one relief appearance.

The Phillies are going to rely heavily on their bonafide ace, and there is no reason to believe he won’t deliver like he has time and time again.