I’m wrapping up my six-pack of Phoenix Suns posts during this slow week, and let me tell you, I’m starting to feel it. You knock back a sixer, and suddenly you’re deep in your feelings. Looking inward. Questioning life choices. Wondering what went wrong.
We’re 23 games into the Suns’ season, and while there’s still plenty of time to turn things around — especially with Kevin Durant set to return and make this team look competent again — there are still some glaring issues. Big ones. Like “need more than duct tape to fix this” kind of holes. Maybe that flex tape crap works.
When you dive into the stats, the discrepancies become clear. It’s one thing to watch the Suns every night and think, “Man, they just aren’t very good at defense,” but putting that into numbers? That’s where it gets tricky. I watch this team religiously. I know what I’m seeing out there. So, let’s break it down. We’ll examine three key areas — offense, defense, and margins — and figure out what’s really going on. The goal? Pinpointing where this team has opportunities to improve.
Offense: Dominated in the Paint
The Stat: -9.3 points per game in the paint, 16.7 paint touches
No Jusuf Nurkic hurts, despite what people may think about his abilities holistically. You take the game against the Orlando Magic, for example. A team that entered wounded following the news of the loss of Franz Wagner to an oblique injury — the same injury Paolo Banchero suffered — you’d think would be down. But they weren’t. They loaded their frontline with Goga Bitzade and Wendall Carter, Jr. and pounded the Suns on the glass.
Goga ended the night with 16 rebounds, a career-high. 9 of them were offensive rebounds, also a career-high.
https://twitter.com/OrlandoMagic/status/1865940408515047536?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1865940408515047536%7Ctwgr%5Ed073736a3595e880728e9e25f83c6537604d821c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.brightsideofthesun.com%2F2024%2F12%2F13%2F24318768%2Fphoenix-suns-struggles-solutions-offense-defense-turnovers-nba
It makes sense that the Suns are being beaten in the paint. They shoot a ton of three-pointers. 46.3% of their shots come from beyond the arc, sixth most in the NBA. But their lack of ability to grab offensive rebounds — they’re 22nd in the league at 9.3 a night — negates their ability for putbacks. The team only attempts 3.5 putbacks per night, 28th in the NBA.
Phoenix is dominated in the paint because they simply don’t go in there. They are dead last in the NBA in paint touches per game, with just 16.7. Wasn’t the basketball philosophy “touch the paint and good things happen”? Phoenix is allergic to it.
Because of this, the Suns are outscored in the paint by 9.3 points each night, which is the 29th-worst in the league.
The Margins: Turnovers in Wins vs. Losses
The Stat: 13.0 in wins (7th), 15.7 in losses (16th), 14.3 overall (10th)
Turnovers are game-changers, and it doesn’t take a genius to realize how much they impact outcomes. A study by some dude named “Coach Bill,” analyzing points per possession from 2011 to 2015 in the NBA, unsurprisingly found that live-ball turnovers had the most significant effect.
The league average for turnovers caused by steals is 56.6%. The Suns? They’re sitting at 57.8%, ranking 14th in the league, basically middle of the pack, but just enough above average to be annoying. It’s like they can’t help but give opponents free invitations to the fast-break party. “Here, take the ball, and while you’re at it, grab some momentum too!”
It’s not catastrophic, but it’s definitely one of those little things that adds up, especially when you’re trying to win games without breaking a sweat (or KD’s ankles).
On the flip side, the Suns aren’t exactly a team that thrives on disrupting their opponents. They rank 28th in forcing turnovers, with opposing teams giving the ball away just 12.8 times per game against Phoenix. When it comes to steals, they’re sitting at 23rd with 7.7 per game.
The only contact the Suns seem to make with regularity is with their opponent on offensive possessions. They’ve committed 48 offensive fouls this season, 5th-most in the NBA, and 29 have come in games in which they’ve lost.
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Oddly enough, you might expect turnovers to play a big role in their victories. But no, opposing teams actually turn the ball over less in Suns wins, just 12.3 times per game, the lowest mark in the league.
Defense: Hustle and Effort
The Stat: 13.6 deflections per game (26th)
This plays into the challenges in the turnover battle and the Suns’ inability to generate turnovers. And when I watch Phoenix play, it is perhaps the single most frustrating thing for me to witness. This team is full of able defenders. Yet their focus and effort on that end of the court seems non-existent.
It’s as if the Suns believe their best defense is a stellar offense. Man. We’re back in 2006 again, aren’t we? Is that T-Pain on the radio? Effin’ autotune…
The Phoenix offense can be lethal. There is no doubt of that. But it also can hit its dry spells, and when that occurs, like an OceanGate submersible, the team implodes. Why? Because their hustle on the other end of the floor is sub-par.
As noted above, 26th in deflections. They’re also 20th in contested two-point shots and 18th in contested three-point shots. Effort plays. Getting your hands up. Sure, you might not block it, but you’re contesting. You’re engaged in the play. You’re focused on stopping the opposition.
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Think of how the Suns lost their past three games this week. In their past three losses, the Suns averaged 61.7 points, 49.2% shooting, and 48.4% from three-point range in the first half. The second half? 53.3 points, 44.9% shooting and 30.8% from deep.
The opposition came out in the third quarter and played their asses off on the defensive end. They contested. They jumped passing lanes. They picked up the Suns in full-court pressures. When was the last time you saw Phoenix play a full-court press?! Their engagement on that end of the floor led to easy baskets on the other. Their best defense was an engaged defense. I know. What a concept.
Why do the Phoenix Suns have a 114.4 defensive rating, 20th in the league? AKA a bottom-third defense? Effort. Hustle. And “give a shit” on D.
Thanks for reading, Mike Budenholzer. Hopefully, this breakdown gives you some tools to reflect, rally the troops, and make those crucial adjustments. Focus on hitting the paint, cutting down the turnovers, and dialing up the hustle, and trust me, those wins will start piling up.
And trust me, Suns fans, the wins will come.
Yes, the season’s start has been frustratingly average, but let’s not lose sight of the big picture. This is a talented squad. James Jones did his job, adding depth and checking every box this past offseason. Well, except for maybe a rim-running big. This is still a team built to compete for a championship. Whether they pull it off, given the youth, talent, and drive of other contenders, remains to be seen.
But we’re not in basketball purgatory here; we’re on the positive side of things. How many rebuilding teams are staring at the Suns and wishing they had our problems? Perspective, my friends.
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