The Premier League table doesn’t lie, but in the case of Nottingham Forest it doesn’t necessarily tell the full story.
Six games down, the Reds are 15th with five points. One win, two draws and three defeats certainly marks a mixed start to Oliver Glasner’s tenure, following his appointment in the summer.
The Austrian has continually underlined the need for patience as he implements his ideas. In his early conversations with owner Evangelos Marinakis, Glasner even referenced his slow starts at previous clubs.
“I said (to Marinakis), if you look at my other clubs, it took us three to six months, so if you expect everything works within one month, take another one, I’m the wrong one,” he recently explained in a chat with a small group of reporters.
Stability is important for Forest, too – particularly after last term’s managerial-merry-go-round. Glasner is the man tasked with instilling that, but also with getting the club up the table. Forest do not want to be in a battle for survival again.
“Of course, if you ask me, would you want to qualify for European places in three years or this year? I would say this year. But again – and this is what everybody has to see and I told him (Marinakis) – Forest struggled last year,” Glasner has said.
“From the data perspective, when the club finished seventh, they were massively overperforming. They should have been about 14th. The teams that got relegated this year, they were struggling from the data even last year. Maybe they survived due to different reasons, but this is where it’s no coincidence.
“You can survive once, maybe twice, but if you always overperform and overperform when the data says you should get relegated, it will happen. The time will come where it will happen. If you drive too fast every day, then maybe today and maybe not tomorrow the police aren’t here. But if you do it every day, you will be fined, 100%.”
So, what does the data tell us so far this season? The stats from Sunday’s 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace laid bare the Reds’ goalscoring issues, with the visitors registering an xG (expected goals) of 3.34 as they notched up 24 shots and created eight big chances.
It didn’t need facts and figures to point out Forest’s wastefulness in the capital; the evidence was clear for all to see. But the statistics do help to explain the Reds’ surprising position in the “expected” table compiled by experts in the business, Opta.
Opta have Forest third in their expected table, behind Sunday’s opponents and reigning champions Arsenal and Manchester City. That position is based on an expected points tally from the opening six games of 10.2 – compared to the five points Glasner’s side actually have.
In other words, the Reds have not picked up points when the data suggests they should have done. Like in south London, for instance.
Forest have scored five goals so far and have conceded eight, for a goal difference of -3. By contrast, based on Opta’s analysis of the matches, the Reds have an expected goals for of 10.3 and an expected goals against of 7.2, for a 3.1 expected goals difference. It suggests Glasner is doing something right.
The hope is, then, that keep playing the way they have been doing and the points (as well as the goals) will start to match up with the underlying data for Forest. Sooner or later the chances being created will be taken, right?
Glasner is convinced his team are showing positive signs and that they are on the right track. There is still work to be done, though, as emphasised by Opta’s predicted table for the remainder of the season, which has the Reds finishing 17th with an expected points total of 43.57.
Forest are tipped to finish ahead of Fulham, Sunderland and Coventry City as they are given a 26.88% chance of relegation. Of course, that outcome is based on the current state of play and changes week to week.
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